Can scientists predict a strong earthquake months before the event?

Seismologists have revealed a study proposing the prediction of strong earthquakes by identifying early warning signals several months before the quake. Published in Nature Communications, the research focused on the destructive 7.8-magnitude earthquake in Turkey and Syria in February 2023, highlighting seismic signals approximately eight months before the event.

The Turkey-Syria earthquake resulted in over 50,700 fatalities and 100,000 injuries, causing extensive damage to 4 million buildings. Despite the challenges in earthquake prediction, ongoing efforts explore warning signs to enhance preparedness for such events. This earthquake originated in the East Anatolian Fault Zone, starting at a secondary fault before spreading to the main fault. The study identified seismic signals and increased energy releases within 40 miles of the epicenter around eight months before the quake.

Patricia Martínez-Garzón, the study's lead author, acknowledges the ability to detect changes in fault activity but emphasizes the challenge in precisely determining the size of a future earthquake. While predictive techniques are valuable, variations in earthquake nucleation processes across different events currently hinder immediate-term warnings. Furthermore, Martínez-Garzón underscores the necessity for further research to determine when these signals can indicate an earthquake.

In fact, combining field observations with laboratory experiments is deemed crucial for advancing understanding and potentially contributing to earthquake forecasting. Given the substantial destruction caused by large earthquakes, any progress in prediction techniques is of significant value. Hazard and risk scientists emphasize the importance of case histories like this in improving the understanding of processes leading to major earthquakes.