- Estimating earthquake-induced failure probability and downtime of critical facilities
- K. Porter ; K Ramer
- Book Title / Journal: Journal of Business Continuity and Emergency Planning
- Year: 2012 , Volume: Vol. 5 , Series:
- Earthquake engineering
- Description
- Fault trees have long been used to estimate failure
risk in earthquakes. One interesting application
is that one can assess and manage the
probability that two facilities — a primary and
backup — would be simultaneously rendered
inoperative in a single earthquake. Another is
that one can calculate the probabilistic time
required to restore a facility to functionality, and
the probability that, during any given planning
period, the facility would be rendered inoperative
for any specified duration. A large new peerreviewed
library of component damageability and
repair-time data for the first time enables fault
trees to be used to calculate the seismic risk of
operational failure and downtime for a wide variety
of buildings. With the new library, seismic risk
of both the failure probability and probabilistic
downtime can be assessed and managed, considering
the facility’s unique combination of structural
and non-structural components, their seismic
installation conditions, and the other systems on
which the facility relies. An example is offered of
real computer data centres operated by a
California utility. The fault trees were created and
tested in collaboration with utility operators, and
the failure probability and downtime results validated
in several ways.
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